Category: OODA Loop

Predicting the future…

How to develop Anticipation Skills

How are your anticipation skills?
What happens next?

The world of sports is teeming with a myriad of physical and mental talents. Among these, one invaluable trait shared by the greatest athletes is the ability to anticipate future outcomes—an aptitude to predict what’s coming next and respond accordingly.

Much like the legendary hockey player Wayne Gretzky, who talked about “skating to where the puck would be,” basketball players can use anticipation to always be “one step ahead.”

The beauty of anticipation lies in its two-fold benefits. Firstly, it provides a significant edge during a game, allowing players to read the opponent’s moves, adapt, and position themselves better. Secondly, it empowers the mental fortitude of an athlete, fostering a winning mindset and confidence that fuels success on and off the court.

How to see the future…
Know where to look

In basketball, an opponent’s eyes often give away the direction of their next action without them even knowing they are doing it. Face-guarding is a good example of this. By tracking the eyes of your opponent, you can often see when the ball is coming toward them since most people track the ball with their eyes and follow the arc of the ball. In other words, they look UP when the ball is coming. This is the point when you need to take action, turn toward the incoming ball and intercept the pass.

Eyes and Feet:
Know what to look for.

Aside from your opponent’s eyes, you can also get information based on their footwork (where are going to go) as well as the way they handle the ball (is it on the right or left side?). These hints can tell you what they are most likely going to do.

Take Action:
Seeing is worthless without Action.

Knowing what someone will do is worthless without doing something about it. You could challenge the movement or intercept the pass. In any case, if you anticipate what’s going to happen and do nothing, it’s effectively the same as not knowing.

Observe at all times:
Practice observation skills.

When you are sitting on the bench, pay close attention to players that you may encounter when you get in the game. How do they move? Do they have any habits that you can manipulate so they “give” you an advantage?

You can improve your “observation skills” in practice whether you are scrimmaging or just doing drills. Instead of just standing around between your turns doing drills, focus on one player on your team and see if you can predict what they will do next. What’s their favorite move? How could you predict when they will use it ? (Or what could you do to cause them to use it?)

Observation is like many other skills… it gets better the more you use it.

Anticipation – Timing and Rhythm:
When will it happen?

As you observe your target opponent, take a mental note of their timing and the rhythm that they use when performing “their move”. As a defender, if you can disrupt their rhythm, it’s very likely that they will commit an offensive foul or at least be uncomfortable if they force up a shot. Pay attention to what they do over and over again. Do they always spin a certain way when they dribble into traffic? Do they always cross over to their other hand when you challenge them at a certain spot on the floor?

Video examples of defensive anticipation…
Link to Youtube video… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bz_GyEf9eBM

Rules and Mechanics:
The ref’s can help you win!

The power of anticipation is also closely linked with a profound understanding of the game’s rules and mechanics. By mastering the fundamentals of basketball, players can better predict the game’s flow, ascertaining when to make critical moves such as stealing a pass, blocking a shot, or positioning for a rebound.

For example, does your opponent always take the ball out of bounds the same way? With the same type of pass to the same person? Can you position yourself such that they do not see you as a threat but you can still steal the ball?

Drills that simulate particular situations such as sideline out of bounds, baseline out of bounds or a trapping defense are another effective way to nurture your anticipation skills. These practice drills, mirroring actual game situations, can help athletes predict outcomes and react swiftly under pressure. Simulations also encourage players to utilize their instinct, another critical aspect of anticipation. Once you know where the next pass is going to go, it’s a relatively simple task to figure out a way to steal the ball.

Be Ready:
Are You Physically Prepared

Achieving and maintaining physical fitness plays an underrated role in fostering anticipation. The faster and more agile a player, the better they can implement their anticipatory decisions. High-level fitness allows a more efficient execution of anticipated moves, creating more opportunities for scoring and defending. Are you ready to act on the future actions that you see developing?

Lastly, anticipation also hinges on mental strength. As you know if you follow this blog on a regular basis or have heard Coach Wheeler speak at your basketball camp, developing a winning mindset demands resilience, focus, and confidence. It requires the willpower to take calculated risks based on predicted outcomes plus the knowledge that your team will back you up when the risky action doesn’t pay off. And it’s this mindset that often distinguishes an exceptional player from a good one… and a good team from a great one.

Anticipation is more than just a skill; it’s a potent combination of observation, understanding, practice, physical fitness, and a winning mindset. It’s the ability to see the future in the present, to analyze and execute with precision. For the aspiring basketball player, cultivating anticipation isn’t just about being one step ahead, it’s about establishing a foundation for success, equipping oneself with a competitive edge that transcends the boundaries of the court.

Finally…

Remember, basketball, like life, is a game of anticipation. It’s about expecting the unexpected, pre-empting the next move, and consistently striving for excellence. As Wayne Gretzky aptly stated, “skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” Anticipate your future, and be prepared to meet it head-on.

Some Books Related to this article…

“Anticipate: The Art of Leading by Looking Ahead” by Rob-Jan de Jong
This book provides insight into how leaders can adopt forward-thinking approaches to anticipate the future and make effective decisions, a concept that can be applied to anticipating in sports.

“Mind Gym: An Athlete’s Guide to Inner Excellence” by Gary Mack and David Casstevens
Offers practical psychological strategies to boost mental stamina and enhance athletic performance. It dives into the importance of mental fortitude and visualization, essential for athletes building anticipation skills.

“Thinking Basketball” by Ben Taylor
A guide that challenges traditional basketball wisdom, prompting players to think about the game more deeply. It emphasizes the role of game intelligence in basketball.

“Relentless: From Good to Great to Unstoppable” by Tim S. Grover
Authored by the legendary trainer of athletes like Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, this book explores what it takes to excel in sports, emphasizing mental fortitude and a winning mindset.

“The Champion’s Mind: How Great Athletes Think, Train, and Thrive” by Jim Afremow
This book explores how the mental game influences athletic performance. It emphasizes the importance of anticipation, resilience, and a winning mindset.


Inspirational Quotes related to this article…

“The key to the future lies in the ability to anticipate it.” – Deepak Chopra

“What counts isn’t the frame, it’s what you put in it.” – Otto Preminger, highlighting the importance of content (or action) over structure (or planning).

“The future belongs to those who prepare for it today.” – Malcolm X

“I’ve missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” – Michael Jordan, emphasizing resilience.

“You have to expect things of yourself before you can do them.” – Michael Jordan, referring to the power of visualization.

“Winning takes precedence over all. There’s no gray area. No almosts.” – Kobe Bryant

“Excellence is not a singular act, but a habit. You are what you repeatedly do.” – Aristotle (via “The Big Aristotle”, Shaquille O’Neal)

“Just play. Have fun. Enjoy the game.” – Michael Jordan, encouraging athletes to love the game and find joy in playing.

“The best way to predict your future is to create it.” – Peter Drucker

“If you want to look good in front of thousands, you have to outwork thousands in front of nobody.” – Damian Lillard, discussing the value of practice.

Please leave comment below and let Coach Wheeler know what you thought about this article.

Mental Models & the OODA Loop

What am I talking about when I say “Mental Model”?

A Mental Model is a concept in your mind of HOW to solve a particular type of problem. For example, you might think that the way to put out a fire is to pour water on it.

You may think this because you tried it and it worked or someone told you that it would work. In many cases this mental model for putting out a fire works extremely well… but there are some cases when it is the last thing you want to do.

What if the fire is a grease fire? If you pour water on a grease fire, it will make it even worse. Check out the short video below to see what happens.  There are a number of alternative mental models for putting out fires that would work better such as cutting off the oxygen to the fire (by putting a lid on the pot if the grease fire is in a pot).

For other types of fires, a better approach (or mental model) might be to crush it or stamp out the fire. Or your mental model might tell you to find an appropriate fire extinguisher and use it on the fire.  Clearly there are many mental models and many ways to solve a problem.

Value of 3M – Multiple Mental Models

As we saw in the previous example, having multiple mental models can make us more adaptable to different types of problems that might arise. We all know someone (maybe ourselves) who is like the man who only has a hammer so everything in his world looks like a nail!

3M (Multiple Mental Models) is especially important in changing situations where our old models might not be the best choice. Add to this the Uncertainty that must arise when we realize that our observations, almost by definition, are imperfect.

We view everything through the lenses of our past experiences and values. If something doesn’t fit, it is common to just “brush it off” as an anomaly or a freak, one-time occurrence. Denial can cause a problem to grow until we are faced with a dire situation (which could have been solved easily if we had recognized it earlier). So how do we solve problems faster and, ideally, when they are smaller and easier to solve?

Inside the OODA Loop

OODA stands for Observe / Orientate / Decision / Action and is a problem solving framework developed by a fighter pilot named John Boyd. The OODA Loop is the sequence that we go through to solve a problem, often in a competitive situation where our competitor is going through their own OODA loop too.  Even if your problem is not as dramatic or life-threatening as fighter pilots trying to shoot down their opponent, the OODA Loop concept and way of thinking can still apply.

The first parts of the OODA loop are Observe and Orientate. As was shown earlier, our Mental Models figure into both how we observe a situation as well as how we orientate to it (or “make sense of the situation”). An incorrect or out-dated mental model can cause us to make (and act on) a bad decision. For a figher pilot, a bad mental model can be fatal.

On the other hand, if we have good mental models we may be able to jump from an Observation directly to Action. This “implicit decision” to react to a pre-determined situation can give you an advantage over your competition, especially if they are still Observing, Orientating and Deciding. By Acting before they do, you essentially are creating a new observation for them and short-circuiting their OODA Loop.

Basketball… for example…

If we are playing Man-to-man defense and the offense does “X”… do we have an “implicit decision” for the “Y” action that we will take? What are your team’s mental model(s) for situations that commonly come up in a game?

What if the competition beats or counters our actions effectively? Do we have a mental model to deal with this new situation? Do we need to adapt or change our mental model? Perhaps by switching from a pressure M2M to one that includes more help defense? Do we back off the M2M or change the match-ups?

Or do we need to develop a completely new mental model for an effective basketball defense? Maybe a zone defense would work better? Or something we have never tried before… ?

Building Mental Models

Whether you are competing on the court or in the corporate boardroom, you should understand how to build new mental models. There are two processes (that I learned from reading about fighter pilot and military strategist Col. John Boyd) which you can use to come up with new mental models… Inductive or Deductive.

Deductive process involves analysis and the breakdown of other mental models into sub-components that can then be re-imagined through the Inductive process. While deductive processes are important to our understanding of both the competitive situation and our options for action it can also lead to paralysis since we can always break things down into smaller and smaller bits which won’t get us closer to a new model and the ability to translate it into action.

Inductive process of building mental models involves creativity and the creation of new combinations or components to build a different mental model. Some combinations will work while others will be discarded. The key is to find something that can be acted upon and tried against the competition.

Where does all this end?

The short answer? Probably never since we are always encountering new competitive or problem-solving situations and must come up with new mental models.

The better answer? When we win. Once we have a mental model that works, we have an advantage in the current competitive situation. We can win.

The bad news (or exciting news, depending on how you look at it) is that things change and a mental model that worked in the past will probably be less effective in the future.

The competition learns… so be ready.

It is good to build a little Uncertainly into your life. Uncertainty keeps you on your toes and helps you be on the lookout for situations where your existing mental models are letting you down. A mind that is open to the idea that you don’t have all the answers will also drive you to continue to learn and prepare for your next competition. (Ideally, you are adapting faster than your competitors.)

Mental Models keep us alive by helping us solve problems. They can also kill us if we are in a dogfight and our mental model is out of date or ineffective.

Are your mental models up to date? What can you learn today so you are ready to build new mental models? If you found the OODA Loop idea interesting, I would recommend reading this post that gets into the concepts that Boyd used to create and implement his OODA Loop idea. It provides more insights related to the use of OODA Loops which can improve your effectiveness as an athlete and in life.

Leave a comment on your Mental Models

Did you find this article useful? What mental model did you explore or change? What problem did you solve by building new mental models? We would love to hear your stories and feedback in the comments below !