Category: Defense

Coach Wheeler’s Top 7 Ways to Anticipate the Future on defense!

In basketball, defense is more than just reacting to what happens in front of you. Elite defenders seem to have a knack for knowing exactly where the ball is going before the offense makes a move. This ability to anticipate the offense’s next action and be one step ahead is a hallmark of great defense. Players who master this skill can disrupt the flow of the game, generate steals, and swing momentum in their team’s favor.

Developing anticipation skills, especially in man-to-man defense, requires more than just physical ability. It involves studying tendencies, understanding positioning, reading body language, and having a high basketball IQ. In this article, we’ll break down how to hone these anticipation skills so you can start predicting the future on the court. As a fun reference point, we’ll even look at how Wayne Gretzky’s famous approach of “skating to where the puck will be” translates to basketball.

1. Study Opponents and Game Film:
See the Game Before It Happens

Anticipation begins long before the game even starts. The best defenders put in the work to study their opponents’ tendencies, understanding not just individual habits but also how entire teams run their offensive sets. Just like Wayne Gretzky would skate to where the puck was going to be, basketball players can anticipate where the ball is going based on offensive patterns.

How to Apply It:

  • Learn Tendencies: Every player has specific habits they rely on, especially under pressure. Do they prefer to drive to their right? Do they like pulling up for a jumper after one dribble? By studying your opponent’s go-to moves, you begin to develop a mental map of where they are likely to move with the ball in different situations.
  • Analyze Offensive Plays: Team offenses have structure and patterns that often repeat themselves. By studying game film and observing how teams execute plays, you can begin to predict their next move. For example, if a team frequently runs a pick-and-roll and swings the ball to the weak side for a three-point shot, you can anticipate this pass and position yourself accordingly.

As Wayne Gretzky famously said, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” In basketball, this means moving to where the ball will be, not where it currently is. By learning the tendencies of both players and offensive systems, you can get yourself into the right position to make a steal or disrupt the play.

Real-World Application:

Suppose you’re guarding a point guard who always passes to the corner after using a screen in a pick-and-roll situation. After studying their film, you notice this happens repeatedly. During the game, you anticipate the pass before it’s even made, sliding into the passing lane and intercepting the ball. You’ve effectively “skated to where the puck will be,” positioning yourself to capitalize on a predictable pattern.

2. Positioning and Footwork:
Be Where You Need to Be

Anticipation isn’t just a mental game—it requires precise physical positioning. If you’re not in the right spot, even perfect anticipation won’t result in a steal or defensive stop. Proper footwork and positioning are foundational to man-to-man defense, and they give you the physical tools to act on your reads.

How to Apply It:

  • Stay in a Defensive Stance: Maintaining a low, balanced defensive stance allows you to move quickly in any direction. By staying low, with your knees bent and your weight on the balls of your feet, you can react faster to any movement by the offense.
  • Cut Off Driving Angles: Anticipate the offensive player’s preferred direction and position your body to force them into uncomfortable situations. If you know they favor driving right, position yourself to cut off that lane and force them to go left, where they might be less effective. By cutting off options, you can funnel them into traps or force a bad pass.
  • The “Monkey in the Middle” Principle: As a defender, your goal is to either be close enough to the ball handler to disrupt their dribble or, if you’re anticipating a pass, closer to the receiver. Think about how “Monkey in the Middle” works—if you’re stuck directly between the passer and receiver, it’s easy for them to pass over you. Instead, position yourself closer to the ball or the receiver so that the pass is more difficult and potentially easier to intercept. The closer you are to the intended action, the higher your chances of making a play.

Real-World Application:

Let’s say the offense is running a simple pick-and-roll. As a defender on the wing, you can anticipate that the ball-handler will pass to the roll man or kick it out to the corner shooter. By using proper positioning and staying low, you can move to the passing lane and intercept the pass before the offense can get a shot off. You’re positioning yourself based on the likely next move, not just reacting to the current play.

3. Read Body Language and Ball Position: Eyes and Hands Tell the Story

One of the most important parts of anticipation is learning how to read the body language of the offensive player. Skilled defenders can pick up on subtle clues, such as where the ball is held, the position of the player’s eyes, or the angle of their shoulders, to predict what’s going to happen next.

How to Apply It:

  • Watch the Eyes and Shoulders: Offensive players often give away their intentions with their eyes and shoulders. A quick glance to a teammate can signal an impending pass, while a dropped shoulder often indicates an attempt to drive. By focusing on these cues, you can get ahead of the play and put yourself in a position to contest the drive or steal the ball.
  • Pay Attention to Ball Position: The position of the ball in the player’s hands is one of the best indicators of their next move:
    • If the ball is held low and to the side (usually on their strong hand), they are likely preparing to dribble or drive in that direction.
    • If the ball is held overhead, the player is likely preparing to make a pass or take a shot.
    • When dribbling, if the ball is being controlled on the right side, anticipate that they may either pass or drive to their right. Similarly, if they are controlling the ball on the left, be ready for a move or pass in that direction.

By recognizing these subtle body language and ball-handling cues, you can anticipate the offensive player’s next move before they even make it.

Real-World Application:

Imagine you’re guarding a wing player who has the ball on their right side and is scanning the court. Based on where they’re holding the ball and where they’re looking, you anticipate that they’ll try to drive baseline. You adjust your positioning, cut off the baseline, and force them into a turnover or a bad shot. You’ve effectively predicted the future based on reading their ball position and body language.

4. Court Awareness and Basketball IQ:
See the Whole Floor

Great anticipation doesn’t stop with your man—it extends to understanding the bigger picture on the court. Elite defenders know how to recognize offensive spacing, player movement, and likely passing options. Court awareness allows you to anticipate where players will move and where the ball will go next.

How to Apply It:

  • Recognize Offensive Spacing: Offensive teams use specific spacing to open up passing lanes, create driving lanes, or generate open shots. By recognizing how players are positioned on the court, you can anticipate the likely play. For instance, if a team is spaced out with shooters on the wings, expect skip passes and quick ball reversals. If they’re bunched up, be ready for a drive or an inside pass.
  • Know the Opposing Team’s Plays and Press Breaks: Once you’ve seen an opponent’s set plays or press breaks, you can anticipate where the players will move. Teams often fall into predictable patterns, especially when they’re under pressure. If you know that a team’s press break always involves a pass to the middle of the court, you can anticipate and jump the passing lane for a steal. By being aware of these “automatic” passes, you can force turnovers and disrupt the offense’s rhythm.

Real-World Application:

Let’s say the opposing team has a play where they run a high screen for their point guard, and then swing the ball to the corner for a three-pointer. After recognizing this pattern, you can start to anticipate the pass to the corner and get into position early to contest the shot or intercept the pass. Similarly, if you’ve seen their press break before, you know which players are likely to receive the ball and can position yourself to create a turnover.

5. Active Hands and Deflections:
Disrupt, Deflect, Steal

Active hands are a critical component of anticipation. Even if you don’t always get the steal, deflecting a pass or disrupting the dribble can throw off the offense and lead to turnovers.

How to Apply It:

  • Get in the Passing Lanes: When you anticipate a pass, use your hands to make it more difficult for the offense to complete it. By staying active and positioning yourself between the passer and receiver, you can deflect the ball or force a bad pass.
  • Poke the Ball Free: Even if you’re not directly in position to make a steal, using your hands to poke at the ball or disrupt a dribble can force a mistake. This could lead to a teammate securing the ball or create a turnover.

Real-World Application:

Suppose you see the point guard about to pass to the wing. You position yourself in the passing lane, keeping your hands up and ready to intercept or deflect the ball. Your active hands not only disrupt the offense’s rhythm but also create a fast-break opportunity for your team.

6. Improve Reaction Time:
“Be Quick, Don’t Hurry“

Anticipation is only as good as your ability to act on it. You can predict where the ball is going, but if you can’t react quickly enough, the offense will still have the advantage. This is where the famous John Wooden quote, “Be quick, but don’t hurry,” comes into play. You want to react swiftly without sacrificing control. Quick reactions paired with smart decisions are the ultimate combination for effective defense.

How to Apply It:

  • Agility Drills: Work on your lateral quickness through drills that emphasize speed, change of direction, and explosiveness. Ladder drills, cone drills, and defensive slide drills will help you develop the foot speed needed to keep up with offensive players.
  • Reaction Time Drills: To hone your ability to react quickly to stimuli, incorporate drills that force you to respond to unexpected situations. One effective drill is having a coach or teammate hold up different numbers or colors, prompting you to make a decision about which direction to slide or move. Another option is to react to quick passes or movements from a coach simulating a ball-handler, sharpening your ability to respond in real time.

The essence of “Be quick, don’t hurry” is balancing speed with control. It’s about making fast decisions without rushing or losing your composure. Elite defenders understand this balance and use it to react efficiently, putting themselves in the right position without overcommitting or losing control of their movements.

Real-World Application:

If you’re anticipating a skip pass, your goal is to quickly jump into the passing lane. However, if you rush and overcommit, the offensive player might fake the pass or make a different move, leaving you out of position. Instead, focus on reacting quickly while staying balanced and under control, allowing you to adjust if the offense changes its action. You’re being quick without hurrying, maintaining the upper hand on defense.

7. Anticipation in Transition:
Predict the Next Pass

One of the most effective places to anticipate a steal is during an offensive transition or fast break. When players are moving quickly up the court, they are more likely to make rushed or predictable passes. This is a prime opportunity to read the offense, position yourself, and intercept a sloppy or “automatic” pass.

How to Apply It:

  • Position Yourself for the Interception: In transition, offensive players are often looking for the quickest path to the basket. They’re less likely to make complex passes and more likely to hit the open man with a simple pass. As a defender, you can anticipate where the ball is likely to go and position yourself for the interception. For example, if you’re trailing the play, you can look for an opportunity to jump a passing lane when the ball-handler swings the ball to a wing player.
  • Observe Player Movement: In transition, players tend to run in predictable patterns—either filling lanes for a fast break or trying to position themselves for an open shot. By anticipating these movements, you can better predict where the next pass will go. Once you’ve seen an opponent’s fast-break setup a few times, it becomes easier to anticipate their passing options and pick off a pass in the open court.

Real-World Application:

Suppose the opposing team is running a fast break, and you notice that their point guard always passes ahead to the player filling the lane on the right side. By recognizing this pattern, you can cheat toward the passing lane and be ready to pick off the pass. With your anticipation, you turn a defensive situation into a fast-break opportunity for your team.

The Future is NOW…

Developing anticipation skills in basketball is about much more than reacting to what’s happening in front of you. It’s about studying your opponents, understanding offensive patterns, reading body language and ball position, and reacting with speed and control. As Wayne Gretzky would say, you need to “skate to where the puck will be,” meaning that you should position yourself where the ball is going to go, not where it currently is.

Mastering anticipation involves:

  • Studying your opponent’s tendencies and team plays through game film.
  • Positioning yourself correctly to cut off driving lanes and intercept passes.
  • Reading body language and where the ball is held to predict the offensive player’s next move.
  • Using court awareness to recognize offensive spacing and player movement, especially after seeing their press break or set plays.
  • Staying active with your hands to deflect passes and disrupt the ball-handler.
  • Improving your reaction time through agility and decision-making drills, ensuring you can capitalize on what you anticipate.

By applying these principles and training them consistently, you’ll be able to predict the offense’s moves, generate steals, and create opportunities for your team. The ability to anticipate isn’t about luck—it’s a skill that can be developed and refined with the right mindset and dedication. So start putting in the work, stay mentally engaged, and begin “skating to where the ball will be” on every defensive possession.

Looking for more about Anticipation Skills? Check out this article by Coach Wheeler from last year. It has additional resources and a few more ideas for you to consider. Click here.

Player Progression

As a player develops, there are certain skills that need to be acquired at each level of play. This article will lay out the skills that would go into a player progression plan * from the middle school to varsity level.

Before we get started… Let’s have FUN !

Of course the underlying “skill” is enjoyment of the game and that needs to come first. In fact, most players self-select themselves for the sport based on their love of the game and some connection that develops very early in their childhood. As a coach, it is our responsibility to take players to the next level while fanning the flames of their love of the game.

** Coach Wheeler’s view only…

Coach WheelerThe player progression described below** is based on my coaching philosophy and the style of play that I like to use for my teams.

Another coach might have different priorities depending on how he expects his teams to compete.  Having said that, there are probably a good amount of overlap and none of the skills mentioned will “go unused” by a coach, especially if a player becomes outstanding in that area.

Levels of Player Progression…

I originally tried to divide the player progression into 3 levels (Middle School / Frosh-JV / JV-Varsity) but, as you will see, there isn’t much “in the middle”. I think that is because many skills have a wide spectrum with lots of different levels along the way.

The difference between a Middle School player and a successful Varsity High School player can also depend on how that year’s team defines particular roles. In other word, someone might not have all the skills of a well-rounded varsity player but the ones that they do have (e.g rebounding or defense) could make them a strong role player for the team.

Let’s start by looking at the Middle School skills…

Middle School Level
  • Passing (strength / heads-up)
  • Catching (move to the pass)
  • Position defense (relative to ball / athletics)
  • Rebounding (box out / launch to the ball)
  • Layup Technique (footwork / angles)
  • Mid-range shot (touch / form)
  • Run the floor (full speed / endurance)
  • Triple Threat / Court Vision
  • Growth Mindset
Frosh / JV …

[this level is basically the transition to, and preparation for, become a varsity player]

  • Run the floor / Speed layups (w/contact, multi-angles)
  • Heads Up dribble (quick & strong)
  • Strong “set shot” – mid-range / 3 pt. / w/o thinking

 

JV / Varsity Level
  • Power Drive (standing / full-speed / Moves)
  • Strong Handles
  • Jump (touch rim / dunk)
  • Pressure M2M Defense (w/o fouls, w/o “Ole”)
  • Off-ball defense (steals / traps / help)
  • Signature Move(s) – Inside or perimeter (move/shoot)
  • Court Awareness (instant ball movement)
  • Mentally Strong *
  • Strong Role on Team

* Mental Toughness or a Champion Mindset is a large subject and it can take years to develop but, to start with, it means that a player “Practices Like a Champion”. A Mentally Strong player is able to “out perform” opponents through their understanding of the game as well as their willingness to do what is required to win. A mentally strong player makes the other team work hard on both ends of the court.

How does progress happen?

Some of a player’s progress will happen naturally as they grow from middle school age to high school age. As they say, you can’t teach height. For some people that is not great news but there is good news too!

The good news (especially for “height challenged” players) is that most of the skills listed can be learned, even things like jump height. A good coach can help a player learn various skills and there is no shortage of videos on YouTube to show players ideas for skill building drills.

Who is holding you back?

I see it every year. A player doesn’t improve over the off-season and they are passed by other players who have improved. The missing ingredient for most players is not an exposure to the skills but rather a lack of consistent off-season work on those skills. While playing other sports during basketball’s off-season might help a player develop athletically, basketball is very much a game of skill. And skills require practice if you want to improve. I heard a good quote on a recent podcast… “If you still have the same weaknesses as you had last season [and haven’t improved your strengths], you have wasted the off-season.”

Bottom Line…

If you aren’t getting better each year, there will be someone who passes you and takes your minutes at the next level. Basketball is a team sport but it is also very competitive. There are only so many game minutes at the varsity level and they go to the best players (as defined by the coach).

At the end of the season, every player who is serious about their game needs to lay out their Player Progression Plan by identifying their weaknesses and strengths along with the activities that will help them improve. Ideally, this should be combined with a review by your varsity coach to determine how you might contribute most quickly at the varsity level.

Coach Wheeler’s In-season Player Progression Plan

I believe that “What we work on EVERYDAY improves over time.” That is why there are some basic elements that will show up in every practice that I run…

  • Physical Challenges (running / defense / strength)
  • Shooting
  • [Perfections] which covers a number of skills
    – Running
    – Passing
    – High speed layups
    – Communication
    Players should show progress in the first half of the season. By the time that we have played the teams on our schedule at least once, we should be ready to take our game to the next level. A tournament over Christmas break is always a good test to see where the team is in terms of player development as well as team cohesiveness and execution.

The second half of the season is focused on extending the team’s progress. We also want to do even better against opponents the 2nd time we play them. This approach is designed to get the team ready for the playoffs. If things go well, it also gives us a seeding that helps our drive for a championship.

All team success starts with the player’s progression and acquisition of skills. A coach can teach but the player has to take responsibility for their own development. If you show that you want to go the “extra mile”, most coaches love that attitude and will give you extra attention. As a player, you have to decide what you want. Do you want to be a key contributor at the varsity level? Or do you want to sit on the bench? You get to decide based on how you progress as a player. Hopefully this article gave you some ideas to work on. Please leave a comment below if you have any questions.

Defensive Tools – M2M

Coach WheelerI am always surprised by how few players understand the tools that they have available to them as defensive players on a basketball court. Too often players rest on defense and don’t focus on what will help their team take the ball away from the opposition or make it more difficult for them to score. If a player applies the skills described below, they can go from reacting to the offense to taking control of their opposition’s offense and dictating what they do.

The top defensive skills that every player should use on defense are Position (distance, charge,steering), Jab Step, Face Guarding (the right way) and Weak Side Steals.

Position. This is the most basic form of defense and it us where most players stop. Why? Because it may be “good enough” to be considered “defense” but I would challenge you to go beyond just “good enough” and take your defense to a higher level.

Within “position defense” there are many aspects that players can apply. In particular, there are a number of ways to guard a post player (front, side or behind) and it depends on your relative size as well as the help that you can expect from your team mates on defense.

Relative distance from the dribbler. In terms of position, I often see players back away from their man when they think that they are not quick enough to stay with them. They hope that the added buffer will give them more time to react and prevent their player from scoring. What usually happens though is that they allow the offensive player to build up momentum and drive by them even faster. As Homer Simpson says… D’OH !

What’s the solution? This is going to sound counterintuitive but pay close attention. Instead of backing off, the answer is … Get closer. Much closer. It is almost like wrestling because the offensive player can’t dribble in front of themselves (because the defensive player is there and can steal the ball) and any move around the defensive player will require more effort than it would if the offensive player is given room to move.

Will you get beat when you are playing up-close, in-your-face defense? Probably, but you will make the offensive player work for it. You might even pick up a charge if the offensive player gets too physical. The key is how you (and your team mates) react on defense when you get beat…

What happens when you get beat? Two things. First you stop shuffling, turn your hips and RUN to catch up and, hopefully, pass the offensive player so you can stop them or at least control where they can move. Secondly, it is critically important to stay in contact with your offensive player and, ideally, steer them in a direction where your team mates (or a sideline) can provide help defense. This means that if they drive by you on the right side, you don’t let them come back to the left side. It is a common mistake for defensive players to give up once they are “beaten” by the offensive player and basically let the offensive player continue toward the basket.

Why do I have to stay with the ball handler? Aside from preventing them from returning to their strong hand, you want to be ready to trap them when your team mate comes over to help. This is a great time to steal the ball since the offensive player’s options are limited and it should be easy to anticipate what they will do.

Take the Charge. This is related to playing position and can be done by either the primary defender or someone helping stop a drive. If the primary defender is doing their job and “steering” the ball handler, the help defender can often set up and take a charge. The key for a help defender in this situation is to remain active and ready to prevent a pass to your man.

Jab step. By making a move at the offensive player, you are seeing how they will react. Most players have a preferred hand that they like to dribble with and once you know which one it is, you can anticipate where they might like to go and either get in the way (play position) or fake like you are going to get in their way (using a jab step) to force the offensive player to react. This is an important way for a defensive player to take control of the offensive player and limit their effectiveness.

Face Guarding. This is a defensive skill that relies on using your eyes as well as the eyes of the offensive player. In short, most offensive player’s eyes follow the ball when it is being passed to them. This can give a defensive player an insight into where the ball is coming.

Why would someone pass the ball when you are there as a defender? Because when you are face-guarding, you have your back to the ball and they think that you can’t see it… but you can see where it will go based on the eyes of the offensive player.

Can the offensive player beat someone who is face guarding? Sure, but it requires an offensive player to recognize what you are doing (which they might do after a steal or two) and then they would have to consciously look somewhere else while following the ball with their peripheral vision. It can be done… but in many cases, in the heat of competition, face-guarding is not recognized and the defense has the advantage.

Weak side defense – set up the steal. This is another area of Man-to-man defense that is often overlooked. The weak side is the side of the court AWAY from the ball handler and most coaches teach players that they should split the court and “build a wall” so that the ball can’t come over to their side. This is good in theory but too many players forget that a long pass is one that should be intercepted. The longer the pass, the more time you have to get to the ball.

Why aren’t more long passes intercepted? Because weak side defenders lose sight of what the ball handler is doing and they don’t see the pass until it is well on it’s way. How can this be changed? By knowing 1) when you expect the ball handler to pass and 2) seeing the clues that they are going to pass in your direction. If a ball handler is about to dribble into a trap and they are a good offensive player, they will be looking for someone to pass to BEFORE they get to the trap. If the ball handler looks toward your man, it is likely they will pass to them.  If it is a long pass, the throwing motion will be bigger than a short pass (depending on the strength of the ball handler) and if you are watching the ball handler, you should be able to see it start so you can get a jump on the pass and intercept it. This same approach can be used on the strong side even when the pass might be shorter. By anticipating the pass, you gain a huge advantage over the offense and can force more turnovers.

Conclusions re: M2M Defensive Tools:

Coach Wheeler on M2M Defense…

“Defense should never be passive and reactive. It should challenge the offense and make it difficult for them to do what they want to do. If someone can call a play, your defense is not working hard enough. A successful defensive team drives the offense more than a little crazy and pushes them out of their comfort zone.”

Will you get beat? Probably, especially if the other team is very good. But you will get beat more often if your defense is passive and reactive. As a player, won’t you get beat by your man? Certainly. This is one thing that many coaches don’t want to address. They tell players to “work harder” and get in front of their man. This is great if you are faster/quicker than the offense, but what happens when a player can’t stay in front of their man? Shouldn’t there be a plan for this situation? Especially since there is almost always a mismatch somewhere on the floor and a good offense will figure out how to exploit it. That is where TEAM Man-to-man defense comes in along with the skills mentioned above.

What do you think? Are there other M2M defensive tools that you find are highly successful with your teams? I would love to hear your ideas and opinions. Would you like to see a video showing how Coach Wheeler implements / teaches these ideas with a team? Please leave a comment below.