Predicting the future…

How to develop Anticipation Skills

How are your anticipation skills?
What happens next?

The world of sports is teeming with a myriad of physical and mental talents. Among these, one invaluable trait shared by the greatest athletes is the ability to anticipate future outcomes—an aptitude to predict what’s coming next and respond accordingly.

Much like the legendary hockey player Wayne Gretzky, who talked about “skating to where the puck would be,” basketball players can use anticipation to always be “one step ahead.”

The beauty of anticipation lies in its two-fold benefits. Firstly, it provides a significant edge during a game, allowing players to read the opponent’s moves, adapt, and position themselves better. Secondly, it empowers the mental fortitude of an athlete, fostering a winning mindset and confidence that fuels success on and off the court.

How to see the future…
Know where to look

In basketball, an opponent’s eyes often give away the direction of their next action without them even knowing they are doing it. Face-guarding is a good example of this. By tracking the eyes of your opponent, you can often see when the ball is coming toward them since most people track the ball with their eyes and follow the arc of the ball. In other words, they look UP when the ball is coming. This is the point when you need to take action, turn toward the incoming ball and intercept the pass.

Eyes and Feet:
Know what to look for.

Aside from your opponent’s eyes, you can also get information based on their footwork (where are going to go) as well as the way they handle the ball (is it on the right or left side?). These hints can tell you what they are most likely going to do.

Take Action:
Seeing is worthless without Action.

Knowing what someone will do is worthless without doing something about it. You could challenge the movement or intercept the pass. In any case, if you anticipate what’s going to happen and do nothing, it’s effectively the same as not knowing.

Observe at all times:
Practice observation skills.

When you are sitting on the bench, pay close attention to players that you may encounter when you get in the game. How do they move? Do they have any habits that you can manipulate so they “give” you an advantage?

You can improve your “observation skills” in practice whether you are scrimmaging or just doing drills. Instead of just standing around between your turns doing drills, focus on one player on your team and see if you can predict what they will do next. What’s their favorite move? How could you predict when they will use it ? (Or what could you do to cause them to use it?)

Observation is like many other skills… it gets better the more you use it.

Anticipation – Timing and Rhythm:
When will it happen?

As you observe your target opponent, take a mental note of their timing and the rhythm that they use when performing “their move”. As a defender, if you can disrupt their rhythm, it’s very likely that they will commit an offensive foul or at least be uncomfortable if they force up a shot. Pay attention to what they do over and over again. Do they always spin a certain way when they dribble into traffic? Do they always cross over to their other hand when you challenge them at a certain spot on the floor?

Video examples of defensive anticipation…
Link to Youtube video… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bz_GyEf9eBM

Rules and Mechanics:
The ref’s can help you win!

The power of anticipation is also closely linked with a profound understanding of the game’s rules and mechanics. By mastering the fundamentals of basketball, players can better predict the game’s flow, ascertaining when to make critical moves such as stealing a pass, blocking a shot, or positioning for a rebound.

For example, does your opponent always take the ball out of bounds the same way? With the same type of pass to the same person? Can you position yourself such that they do not see you as a threat but you can still steal the ball?

Drills that simulate particular situations such as sideline out of bounds, baseline out of bounds or a trapping defense are another effective way to nurture your anticipation skills. These practice drills, mirroring actual game situations, can help athletes predict outcomes and react swiftly under pressure. Simulations also encourage players to utilize their instinct, another critical aspect of anticipation. Once you know where the next pass is going to go, it’s a relatively simple task to figure out a way to steal the ball.

Be Ready:
Are You Physically Prepared

Achieving and maintaining physical fitness plays an underrated role in fostering anticipation. The faster and more agile a player, the better they can implement their anticipatory decisions. High-level fitness allows a more efficient execution of anticipated moves, creating more opportunities for scoring and defending. Are you ready to act on the future actions that you see developing?

Lastly, anticipation also hinges on mental strength. As you know if you follow this blog on a regular basis or have heard Coach Wheeler speak at your basketball camp, developing a winning mindset demands resilience, focus, and confidence. It requires the willpower to take calculated risks based on predicted outcomes plus the knowledge that your team will back you up when the risky action doesn’t pay off. And it’s this mindset that often distinguishes an exceptional player from a good one… and a good team from a great one.

Anticipation is more than just a skill; it’s a potent combination of observation, understanding, practice, physical fitness, and a winning mindset. It’s the ability to see the future in the present, to analyze and execute with precision. For the aspiring basketball player, cultivating anticipation isn’t just about being one step ahead, it’s about establishing a foundation for success, equipping oneself with a competitive edge that transcends the boundaries of the court.

Finally…

Remember, basketball, like life, is a game of anticipation. It’s about expecting the unexpected, pre-empting the next move, and consistently striving for excellence. As Wayne Gretzky aptly stated, “skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” Anticipate your future, and be prepared to meet it head-on.

Some Books Related to this article…

Anticipate: The Art of Leading by Looking Ahead” by Rob-Jan de Jong
This book provides insight into how leaders can adopt forward-thinking approaches to anticipate the future and make effective decisions, a concept that can be applied to anticipating in sports.

“Mind Gym: An Athlete’s Guide to Inner Excellence” by Gary Mack and David Casstevens
Offers practical psychological strategies to boost mental stamina and enhance athletic performance. It dives into the importance of mental fortitude and visualization, essential for athletes building anticipation skills.

“Thinking Basketball” by Ben Taylor
A guide that challenges traditional basketball wisdom, prompting players to think about the game more deeply. It emphasizes the role of game intelligence in basketball.

“Relentless: From Good to Great to Unstoppable” by Tim S. Grover
Authored by the legendary trainer of athletes like Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, this book explores what it takes to excel in sports, emphasizing mental fortitude and a winning mindset.

“The Champion’s Mind: How Great Athletes Think, Train, and Thrive” by Jim Afremow
This book explores how the mental game influences athletic performance. It emphasizes the importance of anticipation, resilience, and a winning mindset.


Inspirational Quotes related to this article…

“The key to the future lies in the ability to anticipate it.” – Deepak Chopra

“What counts isn’t the frame, it’s what you put in it.” – Otto Preminger, highlighting the importance of content (or action) over structure (or planning).

“The future belongs to those who prepare for it today.” – Malcolm X

“I’ve missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” – Michael Jordan, emphasizing resilience.

“You have to expect things of yourself before you can do them.” – Michael Jordan, referring to the power of visualization.

“Winning takes precedence over all. There’s no gray area. No almosts.” – Kobe Bryant

“Excellence is not a singular act, but a habit. You are what you repeatedly do.” – Aristotle (via “The Big Aristotle”, Shaquille O’Neal)

“Just play. Have fun. Enjoy the game.” – Michael Jordan, encouraging athletes to love the game and find joy in playing.

“The best way to predict your future is to create it.” – Peter Drucker

“If you want to look good in front of thousands, you have to outwork thousands in front of nobody.” – Damian Lillard, discussing the value of practice.

Please leave comment below and let Coach Wheeler know what you thought about this article.

Court Awareness – K.I.M. games

Court Awareness, sometimes called “situational awareness”, is a critical skill if you want to be a top player on a highly successful team in almost any sport. In simplest terms, it is being aware of what is going on around you. At the next level, you are aware of what each observation means and what might happen next.

It can also be a very helpful skill in other areas of life. In fact, some of the exercises that will be presented below, are based on articles from military blogs explaining how awareness can be applied in battle and other situations.

Basketball Court Awareness…

Learning from the Master

The short video below shows how one of the best passers of all time uses a highly developed court awareness to make some amazing passes. There are some passes where he is looking at the recipient of his pass but there are many more where he is either looking away or anticipates where his team mate will be to accept his pass (and usually score).

What does Court Awareness mean for basketball players?

Court Awareness, at its peak, means that you are aware of all the players on the court… where they are, where they are moving, who has the ball, where they are looking and even what they might be saying. It extends to knowing the current score as well as how much time is on the clock as well. If your state has a shot clock, court awareness includes knowing how much time is left whether you are on offense or defense.

Seems like a lot of information to process all at once, doesn’t it? The good news is that your court awareness can be developed over time… if you put in the effort to improve.

How to improve court awareness

The K.I.M. game, also known as Keep In Memory, is an effective and enjoyable method to boost your court awareness skills. The fundamental concept behind this game is to improve the player’s ability to recall a dynamic scene accurately, a trait crucial in understanding the constantly changing dynamics on a basketball court.

In this game, you’re encouraged to take a mental ‘snapshot’ of the current game state – player positions, who has the ball, the clock, and the score. Then, as the game progresses, you must frequently refer back to these mental snapshots, updating them constantly. This mimics the real-time process in an actual game, as you strive to keep an updated mental image of the court situation while simultaneously involved in the game.

Interestingly, some relate this game to ‘Kim’s game’ from an old movie, where the protagonist develops a strong memory by recalling intricate details from a scene. Regardless of its origin, the K.I.M. game is a beneficial tool in training the brain to capture, store, and retrieve necessary details swiftly, significantly benefiting the player’s court awareness and overall game performance.

Either way, KIM is a way to improve your ability to take a “mental snapshot” and then access it at a later time. In basketball, this “snapshot” is constantly changing (e.g. locations of players) but since you can’t always see 100% of the court or all the players, having a picture in your mind that you can refer to is of immense value as you are figuring out what you should do next.

Here are some examples of KIM games that you might want to try…

KIM Game # 1 – Team Challenge

[FREEZE] Stop play and have all players close their eyes. Ask questions of each player to identify locations of other players on their team as well as the opposition. Team with most answers correct wins.

You can also take pictures from behind the defense at different points in a scrimmage and, later, use them as a challenge for your team to predict where every player was after seeing the picture for just a second or two.

KIM Game # 2 – Snapshot. Questions.

Take a mental picture of something. Examples could be a billboard (if you are driving), a bulletin board (in a school) or a scene from a particular perspective. Have each person answer questions based on their brief glimpse or “snapshot” of the scene or item(s).

KIM Game # 3 – What’s Different?

I got this exercise from professional speaker and World Champion of Public Speaking, Craig Valentine. He uses this as part of his speeches to help audience members recognize changes. He starts by asking audience members to pair up and designate one as the “observer” and one as the “changer”.

He then asks the “changer” to think of 6 things they could change. Craig quickly stops the exercise before it goes too far and he lets the audience know that 6 things is probably too much. He gives the changers a different goal… change one thing.

Next the pairs of audience members turn away from each other (back to back) and the “changer” changes 1 thing about their clothing or personal “look”, e.g. hair style, location of watch or other items.

After instructing the pairs to turn back toward each other, Craig asks the question, “What’s missing or changed?”. Most observers can pick out the one change.  He then repeats the exercise with two changes … and again the observer usually recognizes the changes.

What’s the moral of this story?

court awareness can get you more (and better) shots
How’s your team’s court awareness?

If you start small, you can learn to observe the changes and your ability to see relative changes can be expanded with practice.

The same thing applies to Court Awareness. By using these exercises along with ideas you develop yourself, players will train their brains to be more aware of the location of other players, where they are moving as well as other factors that are part of the game.

What’s next?

First, it would be great if you could post your ideas or feedback about Court Awareness in the comments below. We would also love to hear what types of drills you use and how court awareness has improved the performance of your team.

Second, you might want to learn more about how court awareness figures into something called the “OODA Loop”.  Check out this article by Coach Wheeler “Mental Models and the OODA Loop.”