Category: Anticipation

The 5/4 advantage

Basketball is a game of strategy, split-second decisions, and maximizing opportunities. One often-overlooked moment of opportunity is what I like to call the 5/4 advantage. This occurs when your team has five players on defense, while at least one offensive player is either unable to move (because they’ve picked up their dribble) or is temporarily out of play (because they’re taking the ball out of bounds).

If you can recognize and capitalize on these moments, the defensive team holds a distinct advantage and has a real opportunity to generate a turnover or even steal the ball outright. Let’s explore how to leverage this advantage, break down the defensive strategies that work best, and discuss how to train your team to execute these situations flawlessly.

Why the 5/4 Advantage is Powerful

Imagine this scenario: It’s the end of the game. Your team is down by one (or two… or even three). There are only seconds left on the clock, and your opponent is inbounding the ball. How many times have you seen a game where the defense, in this exact situation, steals the inbound pass, races downcourt, and takes the winning shot?

Now think about this: If your team can do it in the final seconds of a game, why can’t you do it during any other point? Why wait for desperation at the buzzer when you could apply pressure on the inbounds pass—or capitalize on a trapped player—at any moment?

Here’s the truth: In the early parts of the game, your opponent isn’t expecting you to apply intense pressure. They assume those moments are routine. This is your opportunity to catch them off-guard and make them uncomfortable. When executed correctly, the 5/4 advantage can turn momentum in your favor at any point in the game.

Leveraging the 5/4 Advantage

The 5/4 advantage can occur in two main situations:

  1. When an offensive player picks up their dribble.
  2. When the ball is being inbounded.

Let’s break down how to defend in each situation and use the advantage to create turnovers.

Situation 1: Picked-Up Dribble

When an offensive player picks up their dribble, they immediately lose mobility. This is the moment to attack as a defense.

The Ball Defender’s Role:

The defender guarding the ball should:

  • Close the gap quickly: Get as close as possible to the offensive player without fouling. The goal is to make it difficult for them to see their teammates or find an open passing lane.
  • Mirror the ball: Keep your hands up and move them to mirror the ball’s movements. This makes it harder for the offensive player to make a clean pass. Avoid reaching, as this can lead to unnecessary fouls.
  • Communicate aggressively: Many teams shout something like “BALL” or “STEAL” to create confusion and increase pressure on the offensive player.

The Rest of the Defense:

  • Tighten your coverage: Defenders guarding off-ball players should step closer to their assignments and anticipate passes. Focus on jumping into passing lanes and forcing risky decisions.
  • Force a 5-second violation: Remember, the offensive player only has 5 seconds to make a pass. If you can prevent them from finding an open teammate, you’ll force a turnover. Learn more here… Understanding Basketball Rules: Five-Second Violation – Explanation of key rules like the five-second violation and how they can be used strategically.

Key Reminder:

You and your team can do anything for 5 seconds. Stay disciplined, apply pressure, and force the offense to crack under the weight of your defense.

Situation 2: Inbounds Pass

The inbounds pass is one of the most critical moments where the 5/4 advantage comes into play. Because the inbounder cannot move and is removed from the immediate play, your team effectively has a numbers advantage on the court.

Defensive Strategies for Inbounds Plays:

  1. Double-Team the Inbounder:
    Place your two tallest and most active defenders (usually your 4 and 5) on the inbounder. Their job is to:
    • Use their size and wingspan to block passing lanes.
    • Mirror the inbounder’s eyes and body language to anticipate the pass.
    • Force the inbounder to throw a lob or a rushed pass, creating an opportunity for a steal or deflection.
  2. Deny the Primary Receiver:
    The point guard (1) should focus on denying the primary ball handler, who is likely trying to get open near half-court. Stay close, face guard, and use active hands to disrupt the pass.
  3. Jump the Passing Lanes:
    Assign one player—often your small forward (3)—to act as a free safety. This player reads the inbounder’s eyes and body language to anticipate the pass and jump into the passing lane for a potential steal.
  4. Protect Against Over-the-Top Passes:
    The center (5) should maintain awareness of the paint, ready to recover quickly if the inbounder attempts a long, over-the-top pass. This prevents easy layups or fast-break opportunities.

Training the 5/4 Advantage

To make the 5/4 advantage a reliable weapon, you need to prepare your team to execute under pressure. Here’s how:

  1. Practice Situational Defense:
    Incorporate drills that simulate both picked-up dribble situations and inbounds plays. Teach players to communicate, close gaps, and anticipate passes.
  2. Condition for Intensity:
    Defending for 5 seconds may sound easy, but it requires maximum effort and focus. Use short, high-intensity defensive drills to build your team’s stamina and discipline.
  3. Film Study:
    Watch game footage to identify tendencies in opponents’ inbound plays and passing patterns. This will help your team anticipate and disrupt these plays during games.
  4. Emphasize Communication:
    Teach your players to communicate loudly and effectively during 5/4 situations. Phrases like “deny,” “trap,” or “steal” can heighten the intensity and coordination of your defense.

Why It Works

The 5/4 advantage forces the offense into high-pressure situations where mistakes are more likely. When the ball handler or inbounder is under duress, they’re more likely to:

  • Throw a bad pass.
  • Commit a turnover.
  • Hesitate and incur a 5-second violation.

Your team can capitalize on these mistakes to create momentum-shifting plays and generate easy scoring opportunities.

One last parting word on the 5/4 Advantage…

The 5/4 advantage is one of the most underutilized strategies in basketball. Whether it’s a trapped ball handler or an inbounds pass, recognizing and exploiting these moments can swing the game in your favor.

The beauty of this approach is that it works at any time, not just in the closing seconds of a game. By preparing your team to execute the 5/4 advantage effectively, you’ll create a defense that opponents dread facing—one that disrupts their rhythm and seizes opportunities at every turn.

So, the next time you see an opponent pick up their dribble or prepare to inbound the ball, remember this: You’ve got the advantage.

Now go take the ball.

— Coach Wheeler

Coach Wheeler’s Top 7 Ways to Anticipate the Future on defense!

In basketball, defense is more than just reacting to what happens in front of you. Elite defenders seem to have a knack for knowing exactly where the ball is going before the offense makes a move. This ability to anticipate the offense’s next action and be one step ahead is a hallmark of great defense. Players who master this skill can disrupt the flow of the game, generate steals, and swing momentum in their team’s favor.

Developing anticipation skills, especially in man-to-man defense, requires more than just physical ability. It involves studying tendencies, understanding positioning, reading body language, and having a high basketball IQ. In this article, we’ll break down how to hone these anticipation skills so you can start predicting the future on the court. As a fun reference point, we’ll even look at how Wayne Gretzky’s famous approach of “skating to where the puck will be” translates to basketball.

1. Study Opponents and Game Film:
See the Game Before It Happens

Anticipation begins long before the game even starts. The best defenders put in the work to study their opponents’ tendencies, understanding not just individual habits but also how entire teams run their offensive sets. Just like Wayne Gretzky would skate to where the puck was going to be, basketball players can anticipate where the ball is going based on offensive patterns.

How to Apply It:

  • Learn Tendencies: Every player has specific habits they rely on, especially under pressure. Do they prefer to drive to their right? Do they like pulling up for a jumper after one dribble? By studying your opponent’s go-to moves, you begin to develop a mental map of where they are likely to move with the ball in different situations.
  • Analyze Offensive Plays: Team offenses have structure and patterns that often repeat themselves. By studying game film and observing how teams execute plays, you can begin to predict their next move. For example, if a team frequently runs a pick-and-roll and swings the ball to the weak side for a three-point shot, you can anticipate this pass and position yourself accordingly.

As Wayne Gretzky famously said, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” In basketball, this means moving to where the ball will be, not where it currently is. By learning the tendencies of both players and offensive systems, you can get yourself into the right position to make a steal or disrupt the play.

Real-World Application:

Suppose you’re guarding a point guard who always passes to the corner after using a screen in a pick-and-roll situation. After studying their film, you notice this happens repeatedly. During the game, you anticipate the pass before it’s even made, sliding into the passing lane and intercepting the ball. You’ve effectively “skated to where the puck will be,” positioning yourself to capitalize on a predictable pattern.

2. Positioning and Footwork:
Be Where You Need to Be

Anticipation isn’t just a mental game—it requires precise physical positioning. If you’re not in the right spot, even perfect anticipation won’t result in a steal or defensive stop. Proper footwork and positioning are foundational to man-to-man defense, and they give you the physical tools to act on your reads.

How to Apply It:

  • Stay in a Defensive Stance: Maintaining a low, balanced defensive stance allows you to move quickly in any direction. By staying low, with your knees bent and your weight on the balls of your feet, you can react faster to any movement by the offense.
  • Cut Off Driving Angles: Anticipate the offensive player’s preferred direction and position your body to force them into uncomfortable situations. If you know they favor driving right, position yourself to cut off that lane and force them to go left, where they might be less effective. By cutting off options, you can funnel them into traps or force a bad pass.
  • The “Monkey in the Middle” Principle: As a defender, your goal is to either be close enough to the ball handler to disrupt their dribble or, if you’re anticipating a pass, closer to the receiver. Think about how “Monkey in the Middle” works—if you’re stuck directly between the passer and receiver, it’s easy for them to pass over you. Instead, position yourself closer to the ball or the receiver so that the pass is more difficult and potentially easier to intercept. The closer you are to the intended action, the higher your chances of making a play.

Real-World Application:

Let’s say the offense is running a simple pick-and-roll. As a defender on the wing, you can anticipate that the ball-handler will pass to the roll man or kick it out to the corner shooter. By using proper positioning and staying low, you can move to the passing lane and intercept the pass before the offense can get a shot off. You’re positioning yourself based on the likely next move, not just reacting to the current play.

3. Read Body Language and Ball Position: Eyes and Hands Tell the Story

One of the most important parts of anticipation is learning how to read the body language of the offensive player. Skilled defenders can pick up on subtle clues, such as where the ball is held, the position of the player’s eyes, or the angle of their shoulders, to predict what’s going to happen next.

How to Apply It:

  • Watch the Eyes and Shoulders: Offensive players often give away their intentions with their eyes and shoulders. A quick glance to a teammate can signal an impending pass, while a dropped shoulder often indicates an attempt to drive. By focusing on these cues, you can get ahead of the play and put yourself in a position to contest the drive or steal the ball.
  • Pay Attention to Ball Position: The position of the ball in the player’s hands is one of the best indicators of their next move:
    • If the ball is held low and to the side (usually on their strong hand), they are likely preparing to dribble or drive in that direction.
    • If the ball is held overhead, the player is likely preparing to make a pass or take a shot.
    • When dribbling, if the ball is being controlled on the right side, anticipate that they may either pass or drive to their right. Similarly, if they are controlling the ball on the left, be ready for a move or pass in that direction.

By recognizing these subtle body language and ball-handling cues, you can anticipate the offensive player’s next move before they even make it.

Real-World Application:

Imagine you’re guarding a wing player who has the ball on their right side and is scanning the court. Based on where they’re holding the ball and where they’re looking, you anticipate that they’ll try to drive baseline. You adjust your positioning, cut off the baseline, and force them into a turnover or a bad shot. You’ve effectively predicted the future based on reading their ball position and body language.

4. Court Awareness and Basketball IQ:
See the Whole Floor

Great anticipation doesn’t stop with your man—it extends to understanding the bigger picture on the court. Elite defenders know how to recognize offensive spacing, player movement, and likely passing options. Court awareness allows you to anticipate where players will move and where the ball will go next.

How to Apply It:

  • Recognize Offensive Spacing: Offensive teams use specific spacing to open up passing lanes, create driving lanes, or generate open shots. By recognizing how players are positioned on the court, you can anticipate the likely play. For instance, if a team is spaced out with shooters on the wings, expect skip passes and quick ball reversals. If they’re bunched up, be ready for a drive or an inside pass.
  • Know the Opposing Team’s Plays and Press Breaks: Once you’ve seen an opponent’s set plays or press breaks, you can anticipate where the players will move. Teams often fall into predictable patterns, especially when they’re under pressure. If you know that a team’s press break always involves a pass to the middle of the court, you can anticipate and jump the passing lane for a steal. By being aware of these “automatic” passes, you can force turnovers and disrupt the offense’s rhythm.

Real-World Application:

Let’s say the opposing team has a play where they run a high screen for their point guard, and then swing the ball to the corner for a three-pointer. After recognizing this pattern, you can start to anticipate the pass to the corner and get into position early to contest the shot or intercept the pass. Similarly, if you’ve seen their press break before, you know which players are likely to receive the ball and can position yourself to create a turnover.

5. Active Hands and Deflections:
Disrupt, Deflect, Steal

Active hands are a critical component of anticipation. Even if you don’t always get the steal, deflecting a pass or disrupting the dribble can throw off the offense and lead to turnovers.

How to Apply It:

  • Get in the Passing Lanes: When you anticipate a pass, use your hands to make it more difficult for the offense to complete it. By staying active and positioning yourself between the passer and receiver, you can deflect the ball or force a bad pass.
  • Poke the Ball Free: Even if you’re not directly in position to make a steal, using your hands to poke at the ball or disrupt a dribble can force a mistake. This could lead to a teammate securing the ball or create a turnover.

Real-World Application:

Suppose you see the point guard about to pass to the wing. You position yourself in the passing lane, keeping your hands up and ready to intercept or deflect the ball. Your active hands not only disrupt the offense’s rhythm but also create a fast-break opportunity for your team.

6. Improve Reaction Time:
“Be Quick, Don’t Hurry“

Anticipation is only as good as your ability to act on it. You can predict where the ball is going, but if you can’t react quickly enough, the offense will still have the advantage. This is where the famous John Wooden quote, “Be quick, but don’t hurry,” comes into play. You want to react swiftly without sacrificing control. Quick reactions paired with smart decisions are the ultimate combination for effective defense.

How to Apply It:

  • Agility Drills: Work on your lateral quickness through drills that emphasize speed, change of direction, and explosiveness. Ladder drills, cone drills, and defensive slide drills will help you develop the foot speed needed to keep up with offensive players.
  • Reaction Time Drills: To hone your ability to react quickly to stimuli, incorporate drills that force you to respond to unexpected situations. One effective drill is having a coach or teammate hold up different numbers or colors, prompting you to make a decision about which direction to slide or move. Another option is to react to quick passes or movements from a coach simulating a ball-handler, sharpening your ability to respond in real time.

The essence of “Be quick, don’t hurry” is balancing speed with control. It’s about making fast decisions without rushing or losing your composure. Elite defenders understand this balance and use it to react efficiently, putting themselves in the right position without overcommitting or losing control of their movements.

Real-World Application:

If you’re anticipating a skip pass, your goal is to quickly jump into the passing lane. However, if you rush and overcommit, the offensive player might fake the pass or make a different move, leaving you out of position. Instead, focus on reacting quickly while staying balanced and under control, allowing you to adjust if the offense changes its action. You’re being quick without hurrying, maintaining the upper hand on defense.

7. Anticipation in Transition:
Predict the Next Pass

One of the most effective places to anticipate a steal is during an offensive transition or fast break. When players are moving quickly up the court, they are more likely to make rushed or predictable passes. This is a prime opportunity to read the offense, position yourself, and intercept a sloppy or “automatic” pass.

How to Apply It:

  • Position Yourself for the Interception: In transition, offensive players are often looking for the quickest path to the basket. They’re less likely to make complex passes and more likely to hit the open man with a simple pass. As a defender, you can anticipate where the ball is likely to go and position yourself for the interception. For example, if you’re trailing the play, you can look for an opportunity to jump a passing lane when the ball-handler swings the ball to a wing player.
  • Observe Player Movement: In transition, players tend to run in predictable patterns—either filling lanes for a fast break or trying to position themselves for an open shot. By anticipating these movements, you can better predict where the next pass will go. Once you’ve seen an opponent’s fast-break setup a few times, it becomes easier to anticipate their passing options and pick off a pass in the open court.

Real-World Application:

Suppose the opposing team is running a fast break, and you notice that their point guard always passes ahead to the player filling the lane on the right side. By recognizing this pattern, you can cheat toward the passing lane and be ready to pick off the pass. With your anticipation, you turn a defensive situation into a fast-break opportunity for your team.

The Future is NOW…

Developing anticipation skills in basketball is about much more than reacting to what’s happening in front of you. It’s about studying your opponents, understanding offensive patterns, reading body language and ball position, and reacting with speed and control. As Wayne Gretzky would say, you need to “skate to where the puck will be,” meaning that you should position yourself where the ball is going to go, not where it currently is.

Mastering anticipation involves:

  • Studying your opponent’s tendencies and team plays through game film.
  • Positioning yourself correctly to cut off driving lanes and intercept passes.
  • Reading body language and where the ball is held to predict the offensive player’s next move.
  • Using court awareness to recognize offensive spacing and player movement, especially after seeing their press break or set plays.
  • Staying active with your hands to deflect passes and disrupt the ball-handler.
  • Improving your reaction time through agility and decision-making drills, ensuring you can capitalize on what you anticipate.

By applying these principles and training them consistently, you’ll be able to predict the offense’s moves, generate steals, and create opportunities for your team. The ability to anticipate isn’t about luck—it’s a skill that can be developed and refined with the right mindset and dedication. So start putting in the work, stay mentally engaged, and begin “skating to where the ball will be” on every defensive possession.

Looking for more about Anticipation Skills? Check out this article by Coach Wheeler from last year. It has additional resources and a few more ideas for you to consider. Click here.

Predicting the future…

How to develop Anticipation Skills

How are your anticipation skills?
What happens next?

The world of sports is teeming with a myriad of physical and mental talents. Among these, one invaluable trait shared by the greatest athletes is the ability to anticipate future outcomes—an aptitude to predict what’s coming next and respond accordingly.

Much like the legendary hockey player Wayne Gretzky, who talked about “skating to where the puck would be,” basketball players can use anticipation to always be “one step ahead.”

The beauty of anticipation lies in its two-fold benefits. Firstly, it provides a significant edge during a game, allowing players to read the opponent’s moves, adapt, and position themselves better. Secondly, it empowers the mental fortitude of an athlete, fostering a winning mindset and confidence that fuels success on and off the court.

How to see the future…
Know where to look

In basketball, an opponent’s eyes often give away the direction of their next action without them even knowing they are doing it. Face-guarding is a good example of this. By tracking the eyes of your opponent, you can often see when the ball is coming toward them since most people track the ball with their eyes and follow the arc of the ball. In other words, they look UP when the ball is coming. This is the point when you need to take action, turn toward the incoming ball and intercept the pass.

Eyes and Feet:
Know what to look for.

Aside from your opponent’s eyes, you can also get information based on their footwork (where are going to go) as well as the way they handle the ball (is it on the right or left side?). These hints can tell you what they are most likely going to do.

Take Action:
Seeing is worthless without Action.

Knowing what someone will do is worthless without doing something about it. You could challenge the movement or intercept the pass. In any case, if you anticipate what’s going to happen and do nothing, it’s effectively the same as not knowing.

Observe at all times:
Practice observation skills.

When you are sitting on the bench, pay close attention to players that you may encounter when you get in the game. How do they move? Do they have any habits that you can manipulate so they “give” you an advantage?

You can improve your “observation skills” in practice whether you are scrimmaging or just doing drills. Instead of just standing around between your turns doing drills, focus on one player on your team and see if you can predict what they will do next. What’s their favorite move? How could you predict when they will use it ? (Or what could you do to cause them to use it?)

Observation is like many other skills… it gets better the more you use it.

Anticipation – Timing and Rhythm:
When will it happen?

As you observe your target opponent, take a mental note of their timing and the rhythm that they use when performing “their move”. As a defender, if you can disrupt their rhythm, it’s very likely that they will commit an offensive foul or at least be uncomfortable if they force up a shot. Pay attention to what they do over and over again. Do they always spin a certain way when they dribble into traffic? Do they always cross over to their other hand when you challenge them at a certain spot on the floor?

Video examples of defensive anticipation…
Link to Youtube video… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bz_GyEf9eBM

Rules and Mechanics:
The ref’s can help you win!

The power of anticipation is also closely linked with a profound understanding of the game’s rules and mechanics. By mastering the fundamentals of basketball, players can better predict the game’s flow, ascertaining when to make critical moves such as stealing a pass, blocking a shot, or positioning for a rebound.

For example, does your opponent always take the ball out of bounds the same way? With the same type of pass to the same person? Can you position yourself such that they do not see you as a threat but you can still steal the ball?

Drills that simulate particular situations such as sideline out of bounds, baseline out of bounds or a trapping defense are another effective way to nurture your anticipation skills. These practice drills, mirroring actual game situations, can help athletes predict outcomes and react swiftly under pressure. Simulations also encourage players to utilize their instinct, another critical aspect of anticipation. Once you know where the next pass is going to go, it’s a relatively simple task to figure out a way to steal the ball.

Be Ready:
Are You Physically Prepared

Achieving and maintaining physical fitness plays an underrated role in fostering anticipation. The faster and more agile a player, the better they can implement their anticipatory decisions. High-level fitness allows a more efficient execution of anticipated moves, creating more opportunities for scoring and defending. Are you ready to act on the future actions that you see developing?

Lastly, anticipation also hinges on mental strength. As you know if you follow this blog on a regular basis or have heard Coach Wheeler speak at your basketball camp, developing a winning mindset demands resilience, focus, and confidence. It requires the willpower to take calculated risks based on predicted outcomes plus the knowledge that your team will back you up when the risky action doesn’t pay off. And it’s this mindset that often distinguishes an exceptional player from a good one… and a good team from a great one.

Anticipation is more than just a skill; it’s a potent combination of observation, understanding, practice, physical fitness, and a winning mindset. It’s the ability to see the future in the present, to analyze and execute with precision. For the aspiring basketball player, cultivating anticipation isn’t just about being one step ahead, it’s about establishing a foundation for success, equipping oneself with a competitive edge that transcends the boundaries of the court.

Finally…

Remember, basketball, like life, is a game of anticipation. It’s about expecting the unexpected, pre-empting the next move, and consistently striving for excellence. As Wayne Gretzky aptly stated, “skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” Anticipate your future, and be prepared to meet it head-on.

Some Books Related to this article…

“Anticipate: The Art of Leading by Looking Ahead” by Rob-Jan de Jong
This book provides insight into how leaders can adopt forward-thinking approaches to anticipate the future and make effective decisions, a concept that can be applied to anticipating in sports.

“Mind Gym: An Athlete’s Guide to Inner Excellence” by Gary Mack and David Casstevens
Offers practical psychological strategies to boost mental stamina and enhance athletic performance. It dives into the importance of mental fortitude and visualization, essential for athletes building anticipation skills.

“Thinking Basketball” by Ben Taylor
A guide that challenges traditional basketball wisdom, prompting players to think about the game more deeply. It emphasizes the role of game intelligence in basketball.

“Relentless: From Good to Great to Unstoppable” by Tim S. Grover
Authored by the legendary trainer of athletes like Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, this book explores what it takes to excel in sports, emphasizing mental fortitude and a winning mindset.

“The Champion’s Mind: How Great Athletes Think, Train, and Thrive” by Jim Afremow
This book explores how the mental game influences athletic performance. It emphasizes the importance of anticipation, resilience, and a winning mindset.


Inspirational Quotes related to this article…

“The key to the future lies in the ability to anticipate it.” – Deepak Chopra

“What counts isn’t the frame, it’s what you put in it.” – Otto Preminger, highlighting the importance of content (or action) over structure (or planning).

“The future belongs to those who prepare for it today.” – Malcolm X

“I’ve missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” – Michael Jordan, emphasizing resilience.

“You have to expect things of yourself before you can do them.” – Michael Jordan, referring to the power of visualization.

“Winning takes precedence over all. There’s no gray area. No almosts.” – Kobe Bryant

“Excellence is not a singular act, but a habit. You are what you repeatedly do.” – Aristotle (via “The Big Aristotle”, Shaquille O’Neal)

“Just play. Have fun. Enjoy the game.” – Michael Jordan, encouraging athletes to love the game and find joy in playing.

“The best way to predict your future is to create it.” – Peter Drucker

“If you want to look good in front of thousands, you have to outwork thousands in front of nobody.” – Damian Lillard, discussing the value of practice.

Please leave comment below and let Coach Wheeler know what you thought about this article.