Predicting the future…

How to develop Anticipation Skills

How are your anticipation skills?
What happens next?

The world of sports is teeming with a myriad of physical and mental talents. Among these, one invaluable trait shared by the greatest athletes is the ability to anticipate future outcomes—an aptitude to predict what’s coming next and respond accordingly.

Much like the legendary hockey player Wayne Gretzky, who talked about “skating to where the puck would be,” basketball players can use anticipation to always be “one step ahead.”

The beauty of anticipation lies in its two-fold benefits. Firstly, it provides a significant edge during a game, allowing players to read the opponent’s moves, adapt, and position themselves better. Secondly, it empowers the mental fortitude of an athlete, fostering a winning mindset and confidence that fuels success on and off the court.

How to see the future…
Know where to look

In basketball, an opponent’s eyes often give away the direction of their next action without them even knowing they are doing it. Face-guarding is a good example of this. By tracking the eyes of your opponent, you can often see when the ball is coming toward them since most people track the ball with their eyes and follow the arc of the ball. In other words, they look UP when the ball is coming. This is the point when you need to take action, turn toward the incoming ball and intercept the pass.

Eyes and Feet:
Know what to look for.

Aside from your opponent’s eyes, you can also get information based on their footwork (where are going to go) as well as the way they handle the ball (is it on the right or left side?). These hints can tell you what they are most likely going to do.

Take Action:
Seeing is worthless without Action.

Knowing what someone will do is worthless without doing something about it. You could challenge the movement or intercept the pass. In any case, if you anticipate what’s going to happen and do nothing, it’s effectively the same as not knowing.

Observe at all times:
Practice observation skills.

When you are sitting on the bench, pay close attention to players that you may encounter when you get in the game. How do they move? Do they have any habits that you can manipulate so they “give” you an advantage?

You can improve your “observation skills” in practice whether you are scrimmaging or just doing drills. Instead of just standing around between your turns doing drills, focus on one player on your team and see if you can predict what they will do next. What’s their favorite move? How could you predict when they will use it ? (Or what could you do to cause them to use it?)

Observation is like many other skills… it gets better the more you use it.

Anticipation – Timing and Rhythm:
When will it happen?

As you observe your target opponent, take a mental note of their timing and the rhythm that they use when performing “their move”. As a defender, if you can disrupt their rhythm, it’s very likely that they will commit an offensive foul or at least be uncomfortable if they force up a shot. Pay attention to what they do over and over again. Do they always spin a certain way when they dribble into traffic? Do they always cross over to their other hand when you challenge them at a certain spot on the floor?

Video examples of defensive anticipation…
Link to Youtube video… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bz_GyEf9eBM

Rules and Mechanics:
The ref’s can help you win!

The power of anticipation is also closely linked with a profound understanding of the game’s rules and mechanics. By mastering the fundamentals of basketball, players can better predict the game’s flow, ascertaining when to make critical moves such as stealing a pass, blocking a shot, or positioning for a rebound.

For example, does your opponent always take the ball out of bounds the same way? With the same type of pass to the same person? Can you position yourself such that they do not see you as a threat but you can still steal the ball?

Drills that simulate particular situations such as sideline out of bounds, baseline out of bounds or a trapping defense are another effective way to nurture your anticipation skills. These practice drills, mirroring actual game situations, can help athletes predict outcomes and react swiftly under pressure. Simulations also encourage players to utilize their instinct, another critical aspect of anticipation. Once you know where the next pass is going to go, it’s a relatively simple task to figure out a way to steal the ball.

Be Ready:
Are You Physically Prepared

Achieving and maintaining physical fitness plays an underrated role in fostering anticipation. The faster and more agile a player, the better they can implement their anticipatory decisions. High-level fitness allows a more efficient execution of anticipated moves, creating more opportunities for scoring and defending. Are you ready to act on the future actions that you see developing?

Lastly, anticipation also hinges on mental strength. As you know if you follow this blog on a regular basis or have heard Coach Wheeler speak at your basketball camp, developing a winning mindset demands resilience, focus, and confidence. It requires the willpower to take calculated risks based on predicted outcomes plus the knowledge that your team will back you up when the risky action doesn’t pay off. And it’s this mindset that often distinguishes an exceptional player from a good one… and a good team from a great one.

Anticipation is more than just a skill; it’s a potent combination of observation, understanding, practice, physical fitness, and a winning mindset. It’s the ability to see the future in the present, to analyze and execute with precision. For the aspiring basketball player, cultivating anticipation isn’t just about being one step ahead, it’s about establishing a foundation for success, equipping oneself with a competitive edge that transcends the boundaries of the court.

Finally…

Remember, basketball, like life, is a game of anticipation. It’s about expecting the unexpected, pre-empting the next move, and consistently striving for excellence. As Wayne Gretzky aptly stated, “skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” Anticipate your future, and be prepared to meet it head-on.

Some Books Related to this article…

Anticipate: The Art of Leading by Looking Ahead” by Rob-Jan de Jong
This book provides insight into how leaders can adopt forward-thinking approaches to anticipate the future and make effective decisions, a concept that can be applied to anticipating in sports.

“Mind Gym: An Athlete’s Guide to Inner Excellence” by Gary Mack and David Casstevens
Offers practical psychological strategies to boost mental stamina and enhance athletic performance. It dives into the importance of mental fortitude and visualization, essential for athletes building anticipation skills.

“Thinking Basketball” by Ben Taylor
A guide that challenges traditional basketball wisdom, prompting players to think about the game more deeply. It emphasizes the role of game intelligence in basketball.

“Relentless: From Good to Great to Unstoppable” by Tim S. Grover
Authored by the legendary trainer of athletes like Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, this book explores what it takes to excel in sports, emphasizing mental fortitude and a winning mindset.

“The Champion’s Mind: How Great Athletes Think, Train, and Thrive” by Jim Afremow
This book explores how the mental game influences athletic performance. It emphasizes the importance of anticipation, resilience, and a winning mindset.


Inspirational Quotes related to this article…

“The key to the future lies in the ability to anticipate it.” – Deepak Chopra

“What counts isn’t the frame, it’s what you put in it.” – Otto Preminger, highlighting the importance of content (or action) over structure (or planning).

“The future belongs to those who prepare for it today.” – Malcolm X

“I’ve missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” – Michael Jordan, emphasizing resilience.

“You have to expect things of yourself before you can do them.” – Michael Jordan, referring to the power of visualization.

“Winning takes precedence over all. There’s no gray area. No almosts.” – Kobe Bryant

“Excellence is not a singular act, but a habit. You are what you repeatedly do.” – Aristotle (via “The Big Aristotle”, Shaquille O’Neal)

“Just play. Have fun. Enjoy the game.” – Michael Jordan, encouraging athletes to love the game and find joy in playing.

“The best way to predict your future is to create it.” – Peter Drucker

“If you want to look good in front of thousands, you have to outwork thousands in front of nobody.” – Damian Lillard, discussing the value of practice.

Please leave comment below and let Coach Wheeler know what you thought about this article.

Game Face – Get it ON!

This blog article is dedicated to Eddie Siebert. Coach Wheeler, back when he was Player Wheeler, played with (and won championships) with him. Eddie taught me about the importance of “game face”. His famous quote, before every game, was “Get Your Game Face On!”

The video below from BasketballBrain.com is a great overview of the 3 types of approaches used by basketball players and it is worth watching.  Check it out…

The 3 types of basketball game face from the video are 1) Joyous, 2) No Expression and 3) Mean, Fierce or Angry. The video has some excellent NBA examples of each one so you can learn more about each one. The key to all of them is that they bring a focus to your game and just like you can improve your mood by physically smiling, the way you move your face can impact the way you feel and how you play the game.

Which one are you?

First, let me say that you NEED a Game Face. It is a sign to your team mates, your coach and even your opponents that you are serious about winning the game. The question is… Which game face works for you? I should also add that you may tap into different ones depending on the game situation and how you or your team is playing. Sometimes they need a “kick in the pants” and a Fierce Game Face might be needed. Or you might be getting shut down by the other team’s defense so you could break through and show some Joy (and your confidence) when you school them.

It is contagious!

Your attitude, demonstrated through your game face and how you play, is contagious and is an important way you can influence your team. Michael Jordan set a very high standard for the Bulls and they rose to the challenge. (The Washington Wizards… not so much.) What attitude are you bringing to your team? Are you making the practices more effective? Or just walking through them and not getting better? Your attitude & how you express it should help your team, not slow them down or give them reasons to doubt your commitment to winning.

Get You Game Face On!Want to learn more about Attitude?

Visit the “Attitude” page with all the articles about Attitude from the Building a Winning Mindset Blog ! It is important and there are lots of ways to look at it.

Think about it…

What kind of attitude do you want to bring to the game? How are you going to step up so you can defeat the competition? The choice is yours. Now, GO GET YOUR GAME FACE ON !

Story of theshot92

Here is the story of “TheShot92” . . . an unabridged edition for your enjoyment!

It happened on . . .
March 4th, 1992

Picture if you will . . .
… a sellout crowd of over 16,000 at the Hartford Civic Center to see the UConn Huskies vs. The Syracuse Orangemen in a Men’s Big East Basketball Game. Like many games late in the basketball season, energy was running high for everyone in attendence.

The first half was exciting and just before both teams head to their locker rooms to strategize at halftime, the UConn sports marketing department, as they always do at UConn games for halftime entertainment, selects 3 contestants for a basketball shooting contest. Contestants are selected by a sticker placed in 3 game programs and the person who makes the most foul shots in 30 seconds wins a chance to shoot for additional prizes.

Tonight, the first two spots are filled by people who had stickers in their programs – but they needed a third person.  UConn MBA student Dave Wheeler happens to be near where the contestants are meeting and he happily volunteers when asked to fill the 3rd and last spot. (Sometimes it just helps to be in the right place at the right time).

After the UConn and Syracuse players leave for halftime, the three contestants make their way to the court. Even though the Civic Center seats over 16,000 fans, many are out of their seats during halftime getting refreshments and hitting the rest rooms.  The remaining spectators don’t expect much from the shooting contest since it is rare that anyone wins a prize.

Since Dave was selected last, he has to shoot first.  His first few foul shots go in easily, then the pressure of the screaming fans sets in … his knees lock up and he misses the next few shots. One voice can be heard distinctly – calling out of the roar of the crowd – “BEND YOUR KNEES” – it sounds exactly like Dave’s Dad . . . even though Dave knows that he’s not there.

Finally Dave makes his last couple shots to end with a score of 6 made baskets in 30 seconds. Dave is disappointed and thinks he could have done better.  Compared to other halftime contests that he has seen, he knows that six is really pretty pitiful, but he only has to beat tonight’s competition.

Next to shoot is a middle aged Housewife. She has trouble hitting the backboard at all and doesn’t make a single shot. [Dave lets out a sigh of relief].

Next up is the real competition – an 8 year old boy (with his Dad standing by as a coach). The kid can just barely get the ball to the rim, but one rattles into the net.

He misses a few more, then another falls in. A few more topple in and, as the 30 second buzzer sounds . . . [most impartial observers agree the ball was still in his hands when the buzzer went off] . . . he heaves up one last prayer of a shot . . .  it rolls around . . . AND IT GOES IN ! It’s all tied up.

It’s time for a Sudden Death shootout between Dave, a 29 year old graduate student . . . and an eight year old boy.

Dave shoots first and makes his first shot. Dave certainly doesn’t want to be embarrassed by losing to this little kid.

The 8 year old steps up to the foul line, throws it toward the basket and makes his first shot – The crowd goes wild !

Dave steps up for his second shot and the crowd is starting to turn nasty. The want the little kid to win. Did we mention that the contest was right in front of the student section, the rowdiest part of the arena?

It is hard to imagine what it is like to be boo’d by 16,000 people (since, by now, most spectators had returned from getting refreshments or using the bathroom). Even with the crowd against him, Dave makes his second sudden death foul shot and feels pretty confident. The pressure is really on the kid now.

The 8 year old steps to the line, pauses, heaves the ball to the basket – and it hits the front of the rim and bounces up, over, and IN ! [Needless to say the crowd is ecstatic!]

Dave’s third shot. Now he gets to see what visiting players experience when they are shooting foul shots – facing the rowdiest fans in the building – the student section. The BOO’s are raining down from all corners of the arena since everyone wants the 8 year old to win. Dave steps up, shoots, follows through and . . . it goes in.

By now Dave (and the rest of the 16,000 fans) are pretty impressed by this 8 year old. To make two shots in a row is quite an accomplishment – especially against someone who has played basketball all his life and even competed at the college level.

Now the crowd is cheering for the 8 year old to make a third shot – he bounces the ball a couple of times, eyes the rim, takes a deep breath and lets it go. It gets to the rim . . . bounces from side to side . . . and falls out. The crowd moans.

Now Dave gets to shoot for prizes:

Since he won the shootout, he gets to go for the prizes. If the first shot (from the foul line) is made, Dave gets a pair of Reebok sneakers and everyone in the arena gets a free order of bread sticks from Pizza Hut.

The announcer explains the prizes and ends with “good luck Dave”.  Strange as it sounds, it is almost like the pressure is off. Dave steps up and makes the free throw.

The second shot is from the Three Point Line – top of the key – about a 20 foot shot. Dave starts to get a little cocky and asks the guy running the event if he should shoot from the College or the NBA 3 point line. He even makes an exaggerated gesture pointing at each line so anyone watching could figure out what he was asking. [Did we mention that Dave was quite the smart aleck ! ? !]

The sports marketing guy running the contest concedes that the college line will be fine, while the announcer is explaining the prizes . . . “If Dave makes this shot he will get a SNET Cellular phone and, instead of bread sticks, everyone in attendance will get a free Personal Pan Pizza from Pizza Hut! Good Luck Dave.”

Upon hearing this the crowd quickly forgets that they were booing him only minutes before and the noise and cheering starts. Dave tracks down the same (good) ball as before and steps up. With a nice easy jump shot, the ball sails toward the basket and splashes through the net. The crowd lets out a huge cheer [since they had just won some pizza]. Now the real tension starts.

The last shot, “theshot92”, is for two round trip tickets anywhere in the Continental U.S. and “Pizza for a Year” for Dave and a medium Pizza Hut pizza for everyone in the Civic Center. Needless to say, all 16,000 fans are on their feet – anyone who had left for intermission has come back in to see what the commotion is all about.

The next shot – from half court – has what seems like an eternity of buildup by the announcer, giving Dave some time to decide how he is going to try to make this shot. He thinks he could throw it, but he wouldn’t have enough control. He could try to shoot it like a regular shot, but probably wouldn’t have enough distance to get it there. Dave decides to shoot it with two hands – kind of like a chest pass.

There is only one over-riding thought – Don’t let it be short. The UConn crowds are notoriously merciless with their chants of “AIR-BALL, AIR-BALL” when opposing teams miss the rim on a foul shot – and that’s when there isn’t even any pizza involved !

Dave figures at the very least by trying to bounce it off the backboard it might compensate for the weakness that has started in his knees and is now spreading to his arms and the rest of my body. The pressure is making Dave “weak in the knees” so adjusts his target and bounces the ball a couple times while he waits.

The announcer wraps up his description of the prizes and gives Dave his cue to shoot, ” . . . Good Luck Dave”.

Dave shoots.

It looks straight.

It’s hard to tell if it will make it . . . until he sees it hit the bottom of the net –

Straight in –

Nothing But Net !

The crowd erupts. The UConn mascot runs over to congratulate him. A standing ovation from 16,000 of his closest friends [remember. . . there was pizza involved].

theshot92 UConn halfcourt

People from the courtside UConn band ask for Dave’s autograph before he can even leave the court. He must have signed about 20 or 30 programs before finally walking back up to his seat with all the coupons for the prizes. . . shaking hands with everyone as he makes his way up the steps.

Needless to say – the rest of that UConn/Syracuse Big East Basketball game on March 4th, 1992 was kind of anti-climatic. Some people even say they heard a chant near the end of the game “Put in the Pizza Guy” !

That’s the story of TheShot92 !

We hope you enjoyed it.

4 Part Basketball Year

The one basketball season ends and another basketball year begins. If you are only playing and working on your game during the “official school season” than you are missing out.  Below are the 4 sections / timelines that make up the “4 part basketball year” plus the off-season.  Let’s start with the day after your school season ends…

Off Season (Spring/Summer/Fall)

  • Spring AAU
  • Summer League
  • Fall AAU
  • Open gym(s) at school
  • Pickup games
  • Weight Training

Once practices can start, the season is officially ON !  Below are the parts of the season along with the focus area for each time period.

1st Quarter- Pre-Season – before first game

  • Tryouts
  • Practices / Conditioning
  • Learn techniques and formations
  • Scrimmages
  • Keep it simple / Learn The Basics

 

2nd Quarter – First Encounters (1st Half of Season)

  • Play first round of home/away games
  • Find out what works vs. competition (adapt as needed)
  • Fine tune & Accelerate “The Basics”
  • Continue conditioning / strength gains
  • Gauge the competition (Strengths & Weaknesses)

 

3rd Quarter – Revenge/Payback time (2nd Half of Season)

  • Must get better (the competition isn’t standing still)
  • Prep for playoffs
  • Keep conditioning / Make it Fun !
  • Maintain FOCUS. Stay sharp.
  • Take breaks when needed to maintain energy.
  • Cold & Flu season… rest to recover quicker.

 

4th Quarter – Win or Go Home (Playoffs)

  • Perform at your best.
  • Few “Easy Wins”… even lower seeds are playing hard.
  • Have a few surprises up your sleeve.
  • High level of Mental Toughness / Facing The Challenges
Why use “4 Part Basketball Year”?

Breaking up the season into “chucks”, each with a different area of focus and specific “feel”, helps your team fight the boredom of a long season. It also breaks up the grind of weeks of conditioning and keeps players fresh.

A physical test in each quarter, either as part of a game or practice, can be a good milestone to show progress when compared with tests earlier in the season.  I like to have some standard tests for evaluating players and it is good to come back to them in each section of the season to show players that they are indeed getting better.

Bottom line…

Looking at the overall season as a “4 part basketball year” helps your planning efforts as a coach. It should also make the year more enjoyable and more successful for your players. The outline above is just a starting point. Feel free to add your own components to each section and use the outline as a planning tool for this year as well as years to come. If you see something that doesn’t belong, please leave us a comment below. Even if you disagree, your comments and ideas will be helping us get better.